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The Iran War has renewed a global focus on energy security and supply chain chokepoints — from the Strait of Hormuz to the Malacca Strait. In addition, increased Russian and Chinese activities in the Arctic, along with U.S. President Donald Trump’s posturing around Greenland, are accelerating the focus on exploration and militarization in the High North, including use of the Northern Sea Route for shipping as well as exploration of oil, gas, and mineral deposits. Taken together, this has intensified the geopolitical competition for resources, energy security, and frontier exploration. Antarctica, however, remains a frequently overlooked frontier where strategic competition is quietly taking shape, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is making important inroads that could pay dividends down the line.
Antarctica is governed by the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), established in 1959, which designates that the continent should be used only for peaceful and scientific purposes. The ATS explicitly prohibits “any measures of a military nature, such as the establishment of military bases and fortifications, the carrying out of military maneuvers, as well as the testing of any type of weapons.” The ATS, via the 1991 Protocol on Environmental Protection (commonly referred to as the Madrid Protocol), also regulates the extraction of resources: “any activity relating to mineral resources, other than scientific research, shall be prohibited.” There are currently 29 consultative parties to the ATS and 29 non-consultative parties. In order to be recognized as a consultative party and thus be privy to decision-making, the country must be “conducting substantial research activity” on the continent. The PRC obtained its consultative status in 1985.
Apart from the restrictions included in the ATS, the conditions of Antarctica have historically presented constraints on opportunities for economic and military activity. With over 98 percent of Antarctica currently ice-covered, the inaccessibility — coupled with the harsh climate and limited infrastructure — has rendered scale and cost efficiency of permanent human settlement and industrial development extremely difficult. Climate change may, however, change that in the future. The continent is believed to hold significant resource deposits, including copper, iron, gold, silver, platinum, and cobalt. A 2026 study published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change suggests that Antarctica may hold between 12-25 million metric tons of copper deposits. Some estimates suggest 500 billion tons of oil and 300-500 billion tons of natural gas may exist on the continent. As Dr. Anne-Marie Brady, an expert on Antarctica and Chinese foreign policy stated: “Many oil-poor states regard Antarctica’s potential mineral resources as part of the solution to their medium-term energy needs.” As the ice melts, more land may become available for mineral and resource exploration. And by 2048, any consultative party to the ATS can request to hold a conference to review the Protocol currently prohibiting non-scientific activity of mineral resources, effectively calling into question the long-term durability of the ATS amidst intensifying strategic competition and the exploration for resources.
Yet, real challenges for future commercial mineral exploration remain, including viable transportation and permanent commercial infrastructure — which could be solved with scientific and technological advancements. A more immediate important resource in Antarctica is related to fisheries and krill. Krill is a cornerstone of the Antarctic ecosystem, but it is also important for aquaculture feed and pet food, as well as the production of human supplements like Omega-3.
In addition, the continent is valuable for its environment, which can be utilized for scientific research, but it can also be utilized for satellite ground systems, radio and space weather monitoring, as well as potential signal intelligence-related capabilities. As such, PRC activity in Antarctica has increased in the 21st century. The PRC currently has three permanent research stations (ChangCheng, Zhongshan, and Qinling), two seasonal stations (Kunlun and Taishan), while planning for another seasonal station, likely in 2027. When completed, it would become the fourth Chinese station established in Antarctica over the last two decades. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has a stated goal of being a “polar great power” by 2030 and has, to this end, invested heavily not only in technology and infrastructure, such as icebreakers — leading it to outpace the U.S. fleet — and satellites, but also on diplomacy and governance norms to expand its influence in the Arctic and Antarctica.
While much of the PRC’s activity in Antarctica, since first setting foot there in December of 1984, has been scientific in nature — ranging from meteorology and geomagnetism to marine hydrology — there are concerns that some activities may be employing dual-use technology. The 2022 U.S. Department of Defense report on Military and Security Developments involving the PRC assessed that Beijing’s strategy for Antarctica “includes the use of dual-use technologies, facilities, and scientific research, which are likely intended, at least in part, to improve PLA [the People’s Liberation Army] capabilities.” The report noted that ChangCheng, Zhongshan, Kunlun, and Taishan can operate as reference stations for Beijing’s BeiDou satellite navigation network (the PRC alternative to the U.S. GPS system). The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) noted in a 2023 report that the Qinling research station will also include a satellite ground station that can be dual-use, and that the “station’s position may enable it to collect signals intelligence from U.S.-allied Australia and New Zealand and could collect telemetry data on rockets launching from newly established space facilities in both countries.”
The U.S. continues to monitor Antarctic developments — including a January 2026 inspection of the Zhongshan station under the ATS — and cooperate with allies such as Australia and New Zealand. However, uncertainty about budget cuts that may impact U.S. scientific operations in Antarctica could place a heavier burden on U.S. allies. The PRC appears to operate with the understanding that a sustained physical presence and scientific leadership in Antarctica will be the primary currency of influence. This is positioning Beijing not only to possess infrastructure and data capabilities in the future, but also to carry diplomatic weight to influence any future governance norms of the continent. Specifically, should the treaty regime weaken over the next two decades, the PRC will seek to position itself to secure early-mover advantages.
https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief/
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